2014 Tour de France, Stage 1 crash
Although in his dazed state after the crash, Cavendish accepted fault for the crash by trying to create a hole that didn't exist,
a false confession by a rider that just smashed his helmet at 60 kph doesn't change the evidence visible below.
Keep in mind that all this action occurs in the space of a few seconds, so not much time for direct thinking, mostly instinctual actions.
The video shows the sprint viewed at the front,
while another video shows some rough scenes from overhead.
Sagan was used as the reference for the "meters to go" values,
where the 250 is visible on the road in the 254 meter to go photo and it's assumed the dashes are two meters long with a one meter gap.
A black circle with a white 250 is also visible in the 250 meter to go photo on the photo's left below the white Carrefour sign.
1000 meters to go
Just before one Kilometer to go, Fabian Cancellera had tried a late, but ultimately futile break away attempt.
With the camera focused on Cancellera, there is little pack footage from 800 to 400 meters to go.
850 meters to go
With 850 meters to go, Cavendish's and Kittel's lead out men were doing a fine chase to reel Cancellera in.
One of Cavendish's teammates had just pulled off while another continued to lead.
Kittel had two of his team members in front of him, positioning Kittel in fourth.
Sep Vanmarcke (solid green helmet) was on Kittel followed by Cavendish (Blue helmet, black jersey), with Sagan (Green helmet with slots) on Cavendish.
400 meters to go
With 400 to go, Kittel sat well at third, with Vanmarcke and Cavendish in line behind.
Cavendish was getting some protection from a teammate on his left who would later peel off to his left to give Cavendish room.
Sagan was starting to come around Cavendish's left with Gerrans (in yellow) on his wheel.
340 meters to go
There is a short climb at 370 to go and the images jump to a new Camera.
Cancellera struggles with the incline and the pack positions remain the same.
Cavendish (white bike, black jersey with white back) remains on Vanmarcke's (in green) wheel.
320 meters to go
Peter Sagan had made an effort up the hill and had moved up, coming around the left of the other riders.
300 meters to go
Sagan was now coming up on Vanmarcke, meaning Cavendish was stuck behind Vanmarcke, boxed on his left by Sagan and Kittel's teammate that just pulled off leaving no room on the right.
Gerrans is following Sagan, slightly to his left.
295 meters to go
Kittel quickly makes a move to his right off of his lead out man and Vanmarcke moves with him.
Cavendish was so boxed in he can't even be seen behind Vanmarcke.
Sagan is on Cavendish's left with some room between them, but moving faster.
Gerrans is situated on Sagan's wheel
283 meters to go
Vanmarcke continued to his right, leaving a hole in front of Cavendish who's blue helmet could be seen as he switched attention to Sagan's wheel which was then ahead of him.
Gerrans was coming off of Sagan, moving to his left and moving towards the dashed line.
280 meters to go
Cavendish had slipped directly behind Sagan.
Gerrans had moved more to his left and is then well past the dashed line.
Sagan gets out of the saddle for his final push to the line as he moves left to go around Kittel's lead out man.
275 meters to go
Gerrans is now a full meter to his left of the dashed line and well to the left of Cavendish.
Cavendish is poised perfectly behind Sagan.
270 meters to go
Sagan had drifted back over to just slightly left of the dashed line as Cavendish followed his wheel.
Gerrans remained a meter out from the dashed line.
260 meters to go
Cavendish was riding right on the dashed line.
Simon Gerrans was on Cavendish's left (Cavendish's perspective) in yellow and green and about 4 feet to the left of the dashed line.
On Sagan's right was Marcel Kittel (in white and black with openings in his helmet) who was behind one of his teammates (solid white helmet).
Julien Simon is in all red directly behind Cavendish.
Bryan Coquard in dark green sits on Gerrans wheel.
258 meters to go
Cavendish's blue on top of helmet can be seen and he's maintained his line just on the dashed line.
Simon Gerrans begins looking to his right for an opportunity to take Sagan's wheel as his body starts to lean right.
254 meters to go
Sagan was moving forward of Kittel.
Cavendish had stayed behind Sagan.
Gerrans also drifted slightly more to his right.
Coquard began to pick up speed.
252 meters to go
Gerrans continued to move further to the right, contacting Cavendish with his right elbow.
Cavendish had moved slightly to the right of the dashed line in response, but staying on Sagan's wheel in perfect position.
Kittel was eyeing Sagan's wheel as his lead out teammate started to peel off to the right.
Cavendish could decide at this point to fight the contact pressure coming from Gerrans to stay on Sagan's wheel or ease up in hopes of getting on Kittel's wheel.
The typical sprinters reaction is to not accept the bullying and hold your position.
251 meters to go
Gerrans continued to edge to his right, pushing more against Cavendish who maintained a straight line.
250 meters to go
Gerrans had moved another foot into Cavendish as Kittel moved more to the left.
All three were wanting Sagan's wheel which Cavendish already had.
Cavendish was dangerously close to hitting Kittel and he was still just to the right of the dashed line as in the previous photo.
Cavendish tried to maintain his position by pushing back on Gerrans with his head since his elbow was too far back to be effective while Gerrans resisted by pushing out his elbow.
Alternatively, Cavendish could have eased up to try to get onto Kittel's wheel,
but with only 250 m to go, this is usually a recipe for losing the race, especially with the race already in acceleration mode.
This is where Gerrans should have backed off by moving to his left before the situation escalated.
248 meters to go
Sagan began moving to his right, but is still directly in front of Cavendish who has been pushed well to the right of the dashed line.
Gerrans resisted Cavendish's head signal and put his elbow out even more, maintaining his position at one foot to the left of the line
and leaning his body over the right side of the bike, creating greater forces between the two.
Kittel had moved further to the left, leaving no room for Cavendish and nearly hitting him as Kittel moved towards Sagan's wheel.
Bryan Coquard in a dark green had accelerated from behind Gerrans and saw open space to begin his sprint.
246 meters to go
Sagan swung over in front of Kittle.
Cavendish had been able to push hard enough against Gerrans to get back over the dashed line and avoid Kittel,
who was then nearly in the same line where Cavendish was just 2 meters ago; if Cavendish had not pushed Gerrans, he would have collided with Kittel at this point.
Although Gerrans had been moved to the left almost another foot, he still maintained resistance with a strongly extended right elbow, but had straightened up some.
Coquard, sensing Gerrans previous movement to the right had also moved to the right to catch a bit of draft off of him, but went too far.
243 meters to go
Cavendish's leftward momentum carried him a bit to the left of the dashed line
(a total of less than two feet to his left from where his head pushing began and not taking them across the road as he made in his later statement)
and he then saw an opportunity to go for the win,
but Gerrans still had not budged, due to getting slammed in his left shoulder from Coquard.
242 meters to go
Cavendish's head had straightened up some as he prepared to shoot through the hole Sagan had left.
However Coquard had blocked Gerrans ability to move to the left and pushed him hard as Gerrans body weight was thrown to the right side of his bike again.
Coquard actually hits Gerrans handlebars (as he later admits in an interview).
Crash
Due to Coquard's handlebar hit, Gerrans wheels were thrust to his right, knocking the bike out from under him, which collided with Cavendish's wheels leaning to the left as he was trying to pull right.
Even as the crash began, Gerrans kept his right elbow out,
which may have been due to the push Coquard gave him as Gerrans was instantly over the right side of his bike.
Gerrans elbow ensured that Cavendish would go down with him.
Coquard bounced off of Gerrans with enough force to send him to the far left side of the road and went on to take fourth (behind Kittel, Sagan, and Ramunas Navardauskas in mostly solid blue helmet on far right).
The only other rider that went down was Julien Simon (white and red, still behind Cavendish).
Apparently, the real instigator was Simon Gerrans, with Bryan Coquard putting the final nail in the coffin and Cavendish had few options to avoid going down.
On the day of the crash in an interview, Gerrans
"appeared reluctant to blame Cavendish, even though many felt that the Briton had been at fault.
The Australian simply said that he would have to look at the video replays before coming to any conclusions."
In an interview the next day, Gerrans had the audacity to say "At the end of the day it's nice that he acknowledged it was his fault,
but it doesn't really take much of the pain away from what could have been a great couple of opportunities for myself."
If Gerrans had not moved in on Cavendish, Cavendish would have had room to sprint and there would have been no incident.
Gerrans was the aggressor and Cavendish fought back the only way possible.
The hole Cavendish was trying to create would prevent him from being run into Kittel as well as present the opportunity to go after the win.
The hole wasn't there because Gerrans really wanted Sagan’s wheel and hoped he could intimidate Cavendish out of the picture, boxing him in to the extreme
and not willing to allow Cavendish a safe way out.
If anyone should be penalized, it should be Gerrans.
Gerrans tried a typical tactic to box in Cavendish and it back fired.
Coquard actually initiated the crash by taking out Gerrans handlebars, forcing him into Cavendish, leaving no opportunity for recovery by Gerrans and Cavendish.
Cavendish’s only other safe alternative would have been to slam on the brakes, most likely causing Julien Simon (directly on Cavendish’s wheel) to slam into him and cause a different kind of crash.
At 250m, a sprinter knows the race is lost if the brakes are touched and is also dangerous to those behind.
The best option is to hope that the squeeze dissipates before something goes wrong, which is often the case.
Cavendish manned up and apologized for not braking when he got severely boxed in and tried an alternative (creating a hole) that may have resulted in victory.
Serious sprinters know that intimidation will be used and the willingness to stay strong against intimidation is the only way to maintain respect from being severely bullied in the future.
Knowing this, Gerrans should have realized that his intimidation against Cavendish would not result in Cavendish backing down and would most likely be a foolish move;
obviously he miscalculated in the heat of the moment.
Does this look like a man ready to give a coherent statement (damaged helmet, dislocated shoulder)?
I'll often write up race reports after my own races and my wife will often take many pictures.
When I go to add the photos to my write-up, I'll often see that my memory and perspective are proven wrong by the evidence of the photos and I have to revise my text to match actual events.
Mark's admission of being at fault may not be so adamant if he were to review the evidence.
The next time you're out on a bike ride alone, try this experiment.
Pretend that you have a rider just inches to your right, such that you can not move in that direction without causing a mishap.
Then pretend that someone comes in on your left and suddenly starts applying strong pressure to your elbow and you don't try to fight back with your own elbow because it's slightly behind the other riders elbow.
Look at your body posture.
You've probably swung as much of it to the left as possible to avoid hitting that rider on your right and your head has the greatest ability to swing and will pivot far to the left.
Then compare that to the body posture of Cavendish in the 250 meter to go photo.
So even without trying to push anyone, your head will very likely make contact with an aggressor coming in on you, as Gerrans did to Cavendish.
Then suppose that person on your right starts moving into you as well.
Your instinct will be to try to escape that dilemma by pushing even more to the left.
This is the situation Cavendish finds himself with 248 meters to go.
So even though Cavendish felt his head contact with Gerrans and it felt like he was intentionally pushing him, in all likelihood he was just reacting to the situation imposed on him rather than being provocatively aggressive as everyone tries to make it out to be.
He then admitted fault and apologized before analyzing the situation after the fact from a wider perspective.
He was very likely unaware of Coquard's involvement, as it is possible the crash may have been avoided without his participation in the domino effect.
If Cavendish had not reacted by leaning away from Kittle, Gerrans would most likely have pushed him into Kittel, taking both Cavendish and Kittel down.
This would then leave Sagan's wheel for Gerrans to take and possibly take the stage (the formula Kittel used), leaving the damage in his wake.
Those that are criticizing Cavendish for being dangerous may not have enjoyed the remainder of the race so much with both Kittel and Cavendish no longer participating and Gerrans being exposed as the bully.
Less than a week later on Friday July 11 on Stage 7, Gerrans would take down Andrew Talansky in a similar fashion in the sprint, crossing over him with with about 100 meters to go and denying any fault.